Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 3.261485 3.522022 3.817187 4.182278 4.630824 5.177529 5.918642
2025-02-23 2.844481 3.157883 3.536554 4.044182 4.737256 5.708708 7.320454
2025-03-02 2.644250 2.992114 3.432133 4.059351 4.994698 6.491971 9.636905
2025-03-09 2.492157 2.857803 3.335707 4.049144 5.191954 7.256773 12.949397
2025-03-16 2.350210 2.718161 3.209462 3.966211 5.242160 7.779399 17.018643
2025-03-23 2.284282 2.670582 3.200704 4.051863 5.594092 9.158804 34.823729
2025-03-30 2.170347 2.547923 3.071617 3.926519 5.522916 9.479216 61.418989
2025-04-06 2.066911 2.432977 2.944216 3.787909 5.395544 9.581385 147.805780
2025-04-13 1.988769 2.348640 2.855494 3.703322 5.360766 9.970805 NaN
2025-04-20 1.958497 2.329181 2.860932 3.777411 5.677948 11.939352 NaN
2025-04-27 1.949569 2.338836 2.910273 3.934130 6.237916 16.380093 NaN
2025-05-04 1.910742 2.302715 2.885184 3.951067 6.465020 20.157849 NaN
2025-05-11 1.874696 2.270651 2.867073 3.984975 6.773665 27.896528 NaN
2025-05-18 1.810077 2.193651 2.772330 3.860021 6.591734 28.303569 NaN
2025-05-25 1.776707 2.161687 2.748738 3.873737 6.837394 43.087089 NaN
2025-06-01 1.741670 2.125536 2.715805 3.864496 7.012461 77.576453 NaN
2025-06-08 1.697399 2.073686 2.653978 3.789330 6.945020 109.155696 NaN
2025-06-15 1.682647 2.065790 2.664738 3.866957 7.450832 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.636857 2.008818 2.589683 3.753297 7.202748 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 1.590996 1.950647 2.510780 3.627158 6.889799 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 1.555366 1.907326 2.455771 3.549950 6.756624 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 1.545624 1.903321 2.467227 3.617585 7.211079 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 1.547537 1.917221 2.509996 3.760209 8.090106 NaN NaN